Will the debate between "AI skeptics" and "AI optimists" reach a definite resolution soon?
There seems to be a divide between those who believe that AI will have a dramatic impact (for good or bad) in the near term, and those who believe AI is overhyped, and AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is nowhere near us. Will this debate have a definitive resolution soon? Let's consider two outcomes which could either prove or disprove the "AI progress" thesis within 5 years or so:
AI spring:
AI progress remains rapid. AI capabilities keep evolving
Most AI experiences are multi-modal and provide immersive voice/video/image real-time interaction
Either LLMs (Large Language Models) or a new paradigm is able to replace a rapidly increasing percentage of human skills
AI tools are adopted by the vast majority of companies for at least some roles
Many if not most human interactions between consumers and businesses and within companies are mediated by AI
AI begins making inroads into embodied platforms (aka robots) to perform blue-collar work
AI winter:
LLM progress stalls, and no new paradigm is incoming
AI systems remain limited mostly to text-based interfaces
Deterministic expert systems and rule-based algorithms remain more popular than LLMs
Robotics in industry remains dominated by rule-based platforms
Most businesses dismiss LLMs as impractical for most tasks
AI agents fail to replace human agents in roles like customer service, scheduling, telemarketing, etc.
I have my own view on this, but I also wonder - can both sides agree that the debate will reach a definite resolution within a few years?
Alternatively, is this debate an ideological one, which cannot be resolved through increasing AI capabilities? For example, if AIs do manage to replace many white-collar skills, will the AI skeptics still claim that AI systems are merely mimicking intelligence? Alternatively, could progress remain slow but steady for an extended time?